Since the 2020 lockdowns, a curious shift has unfolded in how society views body image. Pre-COVID, the cultural spotlight was on fitness and leanness—think Instagram gym selfies, CrossFit crazes, keto diets, and athleisure everywhere. But the pandemic changed the game. With lockdowns keeping us home, many of us got a bit chubbier, and somehow, that started feeling like the new normal. So, is this shift permanent, or will the pendulum swing back to prioritizing fitness? And how long do these societal swings typically last?

The Pandemic’s Impact on Weight and Norms

Pre-2020, societal emphasis on fitness and leanness was indeed prominent, fueled by social media influencers, gym culture, and wellness trends. Data shows that global obesity rates were already rising steadily, but the lockdowns acted like an accelerant. During 2020-2021, widespread restrictions led to increased sedentary behavior, stress eating, and disrupted routines, causing average body mass index (BMI) to climb. For instance, studies found that expected BMI increased by about 0.7 units (roughly 11% of a standard deviation) in the six months after lockdowns began, equivalent to gaining a few pounds for many adults. Similarly, obesity prevalence jumped from around 13% pre-pandemic to 15-16% during it, with some groups (like women, young people, and lower-income households) seeing sharper rises due to factors like poor diet, reduced exercise, and mental health strains. Comfort food consumption spiked—about 24% of people reported eating more salty snacks and similar items—and this persisted for many even after restrictions eased.

Did this become the “new normal”? Partially, yes, but it’s not just about acceptance of “chubbiness”—it’s intertwined with the body positivity movement, which gained traction pre-COVID (around 2015-2019 via platforms like Instagram) but exploded during the pandemic as people grappled with unavoidable weight gain and isolation. The lockdowns accelerated this momentum by breaking down traditional socializing, leading to more “staying in” as a norm (e.g., 3 in 4 adults now often choose home over outings), which indirectly normalized relaxed body standards by reducing public scrutiny. However, this isn’t universal; there’s also a counter-trend toward wellness, with some shifting to workout classes and sober activities over nightlife. By 2024-2025, obesity rates have dipped ever so slightly (e.g., from 15.4% during the peak to 15% post-pandemic in some cohorts), but they’re still higher than pre-2020 levels, and the prevalence has continued to rise in certain populations like children and those with pre-existing obesity. Broader societal softness—rising single-parent homes, addiction to screens, and declining discipline—has compounded this, especially among lower-income groups.

The most notable example of this was the Capitol Hill neighborhood in Seattle, Washington. Pre-COVID lockdowns, this was one of the fittest and leanest neighborhoods, with the highest rate of socializing and nightlife. This Neighbourhood was also one of the most compliant in terms of hearing to lockdowns, distancing, masking, etc., so the socializing came to a rapid grinding halt. The gyms also closed down, which was a big part of this social construct, as were the bars and nightclubs, which shut down as well. This drastic drop in activity and shuttering inside led to stress eating, comfort foods, sedentary lifestyles, and rapid weight gain. The most fascinating part was seeing the people in that community being OK with the “new normal” of chubbier physiques and less emphasis on physical appearance. That pendulum hasn’t swung back yet either. People seem to have just adopted this more sedentary lifestyle, and while the bars and nightclubs are busy again, the gyms haven’t resumed their pre-lockdown crowds.

Will the Pendulum Swing Back?

I think it’s already starting, but slowly. Post-2023 data shows a slight rebound in fitness interest, with gym memberships and outdoor activities increasing as people seek to reclaim pre-pandemic routines. The pandemic’s isolation highlighted the importance of health, prompting calls for interventions to address ongoing weight issues. That said, entrenched pandemic habits like delivery food reliance and online socializing could delay a complete reversal. If history is a guide (e.g., post-1918 flu pandemic leading to 1920s fitness crazes), we could see a stronger push toward leanness by 2026-2028, especially as economic pressures or new tech (like AI fitness tools) make health more accessible. JFK Jr’s Policy nudges toward better public health campaigns and urban design for physical activity should certainly help.

How Long Do Societal Swings Last?

Societal “pendulums”—those cyclical shifts in norms, fashion, or values vary by context, but patterns emerge from historical and cultural analyses. They often swing to extremes before moderating back toward a middle ground, driven by generational changes, economic factors, or backlash to over-correction.

• Short-term swings (seasons to years): These are common in fashion or pop culture, lasting 1-5 years. For example, trends like “quiet luxury” (minimalist, high-quality clothes) dominated post-2020 but are already swinging toward bolder styles by 2024. Body ideals can shift quickly too—think the rapid rise of “dad bods” in the 2010s as a brief counter to hyper-fit standards.

• Medium-term swings (5-15 years): Many cultural shifts, like identity politics or social media-driven norms, last about a decade before backlash. The recent emphasis on body positivity (peaking late 2010s-2020s) has been relatively short-lived so far, with signs of fatigue by 2024 as people crave structure again. Post-COVID changes, like sloppier dress or homebody culture, fit here—starting abruptly in 2020 but potentially reversing within 5-10 years.

• Long-term cycles (20-30+ years): Broader ones, like nostalgia or major value shifts, often recur every 20-30 years. Pop culture remakes (e.g., movies) average 23 years between originals and reboots, reflecting generational nostalgia. Fashion hemlines or body types have swung over decades—from curvaceous ideals in the 1950s to thin in the 1990s, back to inclusive in the 2010s. Political or moral pendulums (e.g., Regency-era restraint to Victorian excess) can take 20-50 years.

In this case, the body norm swing feels medium-term: The pandemic accelerated a 5-10 year phase of relaxed standards, but with obesity’s health costs mounting (e.g., higher disease risks), a backlash toward fitness could emerge in 3-7 years. Ultimately, these aren’t predictable like clockwork—external shocks (another crisis?) or tech (e.g., weight-loss drugs, wearable tech, and other shortcut fads) can shorten or extend them. If anything, the pendulum’s amplitude seems to be getting wilder in our hyper-connected world, leading to faster corrections.